HD For Indies

So I've been thinking about the changing theatrical experience, what with digital projection, simultaneous release on DVD and theaters (and cable), improving home theater experiences, etc.

NATO (National Association of Theater Owners) feels that day and date releases (on DVD, cable, and theaters all same day) will kill the theatrical experience and ruin our cherished tradition of blah blah blah. They do have a point, but they need to come to grips with certain realities:

As the home theater experience gets better and better, and closer and closer to the screening advantage of theaters, the theater going experience is going to have to up the ante to make it worth leaving the house.


There will always be a market for "going out to the movies" - esp. for teenagers who want out of the house, folks who want an out of house date, and for those who enjoy the group experience of seeing a movie in a crowded theater.

BUT that market shrinks when you can have a six foot screen in your living room and surround sound speakers. As with all things economic, price matters.

Over the weekend I TRIED to help my girlfriend (Melissa) buy a new TV. She's dated me long enough to see the benefit of NOT getting a plain old TV and should get an HDTV of some sort. BUT...she has a limited space in the built in cabinet in her living room. I'd hoped to find a 4:3 CRT HDTV that would fit in the space, 32 inches wide. NO SUCH THING. We found two CRT based HDTVs Fry's and Circuit City, both 16:9.

Then we went and looked at the plasmas and LCDs that might hang on the wall on the other side of the room. Egads, they are still quite expensive. Even I, HD fan and geekboy, was uncomfortable with the pricing - I, and probably a lot of the electronics buying public, have gotten used to cheap DVD players and cheap big CRTs. $3000-$5000 for a big impressive TV? Ouch.

Now, fast forward about 2 years, when prices have dropped, SED has hit the market and pushed prices down. How long until I and others can get a 42" HDTV that is good (720p would be fine, not 1080p) for, say, $1000? And a $300 HD disc player? Decent enough consumer surround setup is $300-$500 I'd guess (I have no idea, just saw some low end all-in-ones at Fry's). So for $2K no problem to have a pretty damn killer setup. And after investing in that, aren't you motivated to stay home and use it?

With Google Video starting things off for wide-open content, Apple getting into downloadable content (not HD yet), I just heard about Disney announcing a new program (MovieBeam, see other coverage today) for 27 cities that will partner with Intel and Cisco to have a $200 set top box that will be pre-loaded with a bunch of movies, and about 10 new ones a week. ALL IN HD. Will that take off? I don't know. The number crunching indicated that Disney wouldn't make money unless folks rented 4 movies a week. WOW that's a lot. That's a tiny percentage of the movie renting populace. If I heard the NPR piece right, only about 5% of the US population rents even one movie every week. The movies will rent for about what regular DVDs rent for. But keep going - Netflix will obviously jump with both feet into HD discs, as will Blockbuster I'd imagine. Amazon will sell anybody's whatever as well.

Not to mention new threats that simply didn't exist 20-30 years ago - if you're bored and want to kill time, there's TV, cable TV, sattelite TV, video games, and the Internet. Just read this article talking about how roughly 1/3 of the Internet users in a given day get online just to doof off and find entertainment (Melissa? Is it all just YOU?), implying the Internet is a destination unto itself - not just looking up movie times and restaurant reviews to find entertainment, but a satisfying way to spend time in and of itself. Well, DUH. If you read this, you probably already knew that at a gut level anyway.

So there will be a LOT of options for consumers in lieu of going to the theaters. So with this new competition, what will theater owners do to compete?

My favorite answer is, of course, the awesome Alamo Drafthouse chain right here in Austin, TX. With food, beer, wine, and creative fun pre-show stuff (NOT ADS!), it's a move lover's blast. I'd love to see somethign a little more upscale available, and Alamo does special events with better food every so often. But it'd be nice to get better than "casual dining" quality food on a regular basis.

Scott Kirsner over at CinemaTech links to and discusses an article about the ArcLight and The Bridge DeLux in Hollywood that are trying to elevate the going out to movies experience to differentiate from regular movie theaters or staying home. I LOVE the fact that the ArcLight pays attention to making sure sound/picture is good, and NO COMMERCIALS before the movie.

As somebody pointed out, restaurants, take-out food, and home cooking all happily coexist, just in varying ratios. How big a slice of the pie will theaters get? It is up to them to differentiate from the increasing competition.

Head In Sand is a proven non-viable option.

-mike