HD For Indies

I've been thinking about Apple's expected announcement of a movie store, so here's my prediction:

1.) No Airport Express A/V device as I've written about in the past today.

2.) A true iPod video will be announced, widescreen - be nice if it had video outputs.

3.) downloadable movies will be the size of the new screen, maybe 480 pixels wide

4.) Hence movies will be below DVD resolution

5.) Prices will be as rumored- $15 for new, $10 for older movies

6.) This is a sucky price/value proposition - you can buy DVDs for same or less, rip'em with Handbrake, and have a DVD AND a digital asset for iPod etc.

7.) LATER, maybe WWDC, they might intro the Airport Express A/V type device. It'd have a wireless router with audio and video outputs, you download a movie to your Mac or PC, it gets streamed or wire connection to the AE A/V which decodes the signal and sends to TV, remote control signals are passed from AE A/V back to computer to start/stop/play/browse/etc.

8.) 6-12 months after that, an HD version, using a higher speed wireless interface for streaming

9.) At each step along the way, the res of the available movies increases, the price stays the same, the older/smaller version either goes away or is available at a lower price (probably just goes away though).

10.) Disney/Pixar movies to start - you can buy'em. If other studios, more likely rental model for those. More will follow, same as iTunes Store was.

All conjecture, of course I could be wrong, but it is always fun to guess.

My theory is that, as usual, Apple has waited to see if there is a possible market for something, will step into it slowly, one step at a time, and increase their presence and quality and commitment to match a bell curve of increasing demand over time for these kinds or products/services.

-mike