HD For Indies

SO...we now can buy an 8 core Mac as of today. GOOD.

Let's do some tea leaf reading, starting with the most likely and getting speculative from there:

1.) No other Mac Pro computers to be announced at NAB. This is pretty much a foregone conclusion - why roll out hardware 10 days before a Big Announcement that would change said hardware? They'd either release it now, or WAIT. Since they did roll it out now, it makes sense that they realized this wasn't super impressive, so they wanted the bitter taste of dissapointment out of everyone's mouth that had hoped for more before NAB.

2.) Since the hardware has been announced, it is likely that the software announcements will be BIG. If Apple felt they didn't have anything too special to get folks psyched up about, they would have held onto this "new hardware" card to play that Sunday. Note last year - no new FCP, just a preview of stuff that didn't ship for months (24p HDV support & better P2 import), so they decided to roll out the new Macbook Pros at NAB to give us something to be excited about. Since they've played the hardware card, they're confident the software will rock.

3.) Final Cut Studio 6 *, if it is to include improved HD-DVD and/or Blu-ray authoring, is less likely to ship soon because of these hardware announcements. "Buh-whaaaaaa?" I hear you say? Let me explain - if Apple were going to be ready to ship an HD-DVD or Blu-ray burning version of Final Cut Studio, they'd need to have a hardware option to burn such discs. This announcement includes no mention of such hardware. If Apple WERE going to do so, they'd probably have held the announcement for NAB, as 8 cores and Blu-ray or HD-DVD burning would, in my mind, be "big enough" news.

Therefore, since the next hardware upgrade cycle is likely to be in the August/September timeframe at soonest, perhaps Final Cut Studio 6 will ship around that time if it has that feature? I know that sounds odd, but consider:

Apple has more than once previewed software at NAB that didn't ship until September or October of that year - witness Motion and Final Cut Pro 5.1.2 (that added 24p HDV and better P2 support). The rumors are this is a BIG update, with significant new features and maybe a ground-up rewrite. That kind of effort takes TIME, and even though they've had since last spring (when the Universal Binary PPC/Intel version 5.1 shipped) to work on it, depending on how big a bite they took of New Tech Pie, they could still be busy. The causality is getting a little thin, but one could interpret this hardware announcement to mean that not only will the next Final Cut Studio ship later this year, but it will be bigger/better than the routine update some have expected. That said, if Apple's offerings at NAB are just routine updates (new formats supported, more RT stuff), a LOT of folks will be dissapointed...me included.

* (or whatever it is called, internally I refer to it as "Final Cut xXx")

It IS possible they'll announce optional Blu-ray or HD-DVD burners as a BTO option at NAB, but that would be splitting fine hairs for Apple - to announce new machines 10 days before, then announce new OPTIONS for that machine later, is possible but odd and confusing to customers, and would piss off a lot of folks buying 8 core Macs for the next 10 days. Since you can order and receive one before NAB, that just doesn't quite make sense for Apple to do. Better to hold back the announcement if that were the case to avoid the backlash.

4.) Since there's no new GPU options, that makes the chances of the rumored Final Cut Extreme less likely to be true. Since no new GPU capabilities, nothing to run that big thing on.

Devil's Advocate/Off Chance - the rumors of a Final Cut Extreme that requires additional hardware fits into this model - if it is going to be some badass GPU with additional capabilities, then it makes sense that there's no improved GPU options...YET. Or that it'll replace the existing GPU with something much better, so it didn't make sense to offer something yet. The backlash argument applies here too, though.

5.) IF Final Cut Studio (next) isn't going to ship for some months, that also lends credence to the possibility that it would rely, or certain features only work under the next version of OS X, 10.5 aka Leopard. I had previously thought Apple might require Leopard for the next Final Cut, but it would be unlike Apple to require a new OS for a new version - more likely is that some features would be realtime under Leopard on sufficiently fast machines, but would require non-realtime rendering on non-Leopard machines. Again, just a theory, and inconsistent with Apple's past behavior. Too much splitting of hairs on performance leads to customer confusion, and Apple is averse to that. No version of FCP has ever had features that worked under one OS and not on another. Personally, I expect OS X 10.4.x (probably 10.4.9) or Leopard to be required for the next Final Cut Studio, however.

WRAP-UP:

Apple would get major points for "Surprise!" if they rolled out new, additional hardware at NAB, but then they would suffer from backlash of those that bought this week. Plus, Apple tends to follow a pretty predictable hardware release schedule, and this completely wouldn't fit their past behavior.

All this does tend to cement my belief that we'll SEE Final Cut Studio version xXx at NAB, but it won't SHIP for some time (months) after NAB. And I'm 100% certain it won't be a free download like version 4.5 was on Day Of. At this rate, the only reason for me to upgrade to a Mac Pro is for Redcine....until Apple and/or Adobe and/or Red show me otherwise.

That said, if at all possible...DON'T buy until after the press event two Sundays from now and we know what's coming and can make a fully informed purchasing decision.

-mike

Labels: analysis, Apple, Blu-ray, FCP, Final Cut, Mac Pro, NAB