HD For Indies

It makes sense. All of the studios are releasing on both with the exception of Universal, which is releasing on HD DVD only.

I hope this "war" ends quickly. I'd love to be able to give my clients HD copies of their dailies but it's pointless right now because both them and I are waiting for a clear winner before buying.
 

Kind of scary with stories turning up all over the internet of the Blue Ray disc coat starting to get disc rot. I never liked the idea of the write portion on the outside like that anyway, and these reports make it worse.

I still don't think the war is over, but this may be a move towards it. Still the blue ray spec is a mess. Have you heard about all the problems with the Pirates discs?
 

Be careful of all the FUD floating around the internet. At this point there is nothing to suggest disc rot is real. Not saying there is no validity to the claims, it’s just too soon to tell. Up until yesterday, I never heard of this issue.

And what about the blu-ray spec is a mess? Granted, right out of the starting gate neither format has fully matured, but after following the progress of both discs I would hardly call it a mess. To me, there is nothing about HD-DVD that would be advantageous to consumers. Blu-ray has the support of most of the studios, (meaning more content), more CE support (meaning more hardware options), and higher disc capacity. It was a no-brainer that Blockbuster took the route it did. The HD-DVD early adopters put their emotions and money into a format that from the very beginning, in my opinion, had all the cards stacked up against it.
 

Sun -

please update me if I have it wrong, but does Blu-ray have more total studios backing it than HD DVD, as opposed to more exclusive coverage? How many titles are out on both, and planned to be released on both this year?

Now that I have one of each player (PS3 and HD-A2), I'm hopefully an even backer.

But in HD DVD's defense:

1.) they use the exact same codecs
2.) the capacity difference isn't making a meaningful difference at this point in time
3.) so picture quality is more about encode quality and transfer quality than the inherent quality of the formats
4.) and the biggie, from a consumer perspective, HD DVD costs demonstrably less - Amazon had the HD-A2 for $250 at one point last week, almost half of what the low cost dedicated players are

5.) PS3 offers a lot of bang for buck with killer game system with Blu-ray support, though. But all Blu-ray players are EXPENSIVE! Always a barrier to adoption, technology is only as valid as its price point.

-mike
 

Blu-ray
BR Studios: Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Sony, Lionsgate and MGM (7 out of 8 studios)
BR Studio Exclusive: Disney, Fox, Sony, Lionsgate and MGM (5 out of 8)
BR CE: LG, Lite-On, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Phillips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sharp, Sony
BR Movies: http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/

HDDVD
HDDVD Studios: Universal, Paramount, Warner (3 out of 7)
HDDVD Studio Exclusive: Universal (1 out of 8)
HDDVD CE: Toshiba, XBOX360
HDDVD Movies: http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect.com/


In regards to your four points in HD DVD's defense:

1.) they use the exact same codecs
1A) Agree

2.) the capacity difference isn't making a meaningful difference at this point in time
2A) You hit upon a great point by writing “at this point in time”. While HD-DVD may be adequate for the majority of features available (this is normally the moment when King Kong is usually thrown into the discussion), it generally is pushing the limits of its capacity. Higher disk capacity, in blu-ray’s case of 50 gigs, allows for greater flexibility in features and interactivity, as well as allowing encoding at higher bit rates (meaning less compression artifacts). Additionally, that extra 10/20 (single/dbl layer) gigs of available disc space is always a good thing when the disks are used as archival storage (which is what I do now). I’ll be doing the happy dance once DVD Studio Pro allows for BR encoding.

3.) so picture quality is more about encode quality and transfer quality than the inherent quality of the formats
3A) Absolutely. There may be minor differences in the two, but regarding image quality there is no difference. I’m a home theater junkie and always read the reviews for both HD-DVD and BR and movie reviewers consistently mention seeing no appreciable difference between formats. I look at this way. It’s like comparing two buckets. They both have the ability to carry water. The only difference is one bucket can contain 30 units of water and the other 50 units.

4.) and the biggie, from a consumer perspective, HD DVD costs demonstrably less - Amazon had the HD-A2 for $250 at one point last week, almost half of what the low cost dedicated players are

5.) PS3 offers a lot of bang for buck with killer game system with Blu-ray support, though. But all Blu-ray players are EXPENSIVE! Always a barrier to adoption, technology is only as valid as its price point.

4/5A) You’re right, HD-DVD players are considerably less than BR, but the reality for Toshiba is that they are facing a massive CE juggernaut that will eventually overwhelm them in the marketplace as players begin to come down in price. At this point, HD is but a blip on the radar of home entertainment and really won’t achieve significant market penetration for at least another two years. The CE manufacturers know this and that is why you don’t see the BR companies aggressively price matching its players with Toshiba. Yes, BR prices are starting to decline, but not at the desperation pace as Toshiba. The best that HD-DVD can hope to achieve is parity with BR. Toshiba hopes that if they can sell enough players they will eventually establish a large enough foothold within the market to stimulate defections from both the studios and CE manufacturers. However, I don’t think that will happen because it will only mean increased cost of production, shelf space and confusion for everyone involved.
 

Sun -

nice analysis and response.

The tone of your analysis, though, seems to presume that BR is going to win, rather than an up-and-up contest - "will eventually overwhelm them in the marketplace as players begin to come down in price." - well, can't HD DVD continue to come down in price as well at a similar pace?

From a consumers perspective, I could see it going this way "So same picture quality, some movies available on both, and this one costs less? I'm buyin' that one." Even if there are fewer movies available, it still costs less - shrug and buy the one you can afford.

Combo players don't count yet, because at present they cost more than buying one of each.

BR having more studios is a definite advantage, HD DVD costing less is a definite advantage. Wait for market to shake out.

I'd be a bit irked if the more expensive format won out based on marketing prowess rather than technical value to customer.

"The best that HD DVD can hope to achieve" does sound biased in BR's direction, presumptive of the outcome.

While BR seems to be from the vibe I hear in the lead, if HD DVD can get more units out there, I could see that leading to format defections from the non-Sony affiliated studios (another advantage BR has).

It only means increased cost of production of there are two standards - I've consistently heard that production costs are lower for HD DVD than BR.

Another fact I'd be interested in - is there any consumer price differential between BR and HD DVD discs at this time?

-mike
 

Mike,

It may be a bit presumptuous on my part to declare BR the victor this early in the game, but when I realized blu-ray had the trifecta of content, hardware, and capacity firmly in its corner, the decision then became easy on which horse I intended on backing. The only thing about HDDVD I liked was the name.

You’re right about the cost factor. The main advantage HDDVD has on its side is players at a lower price point. The average consumer is not savvy on the particulars of each format. Most will have no clue as to which studios support whom. All they are going to see is “King Kong” or “Letters from Iwo Jima” in HD with a Toshiba player costing $200 or $300 cheaper than its BR competitor. Unless someone takes the time and objectively explains the differences to them, most are going to leave the store with the cheaper option. The numerical advantages that blu-ray has in content and hardware are only half the equation. Right now, the Sony PS3 is shouldering most of the load for BR, but at some point the BR manufacturers will have to have more of a dog in this fight if they desire to stay competitive and end this war once and for all. Toshiba is vying for precious time before the BR manufactures close the gap in price. The blu-ray group will have to start thinking seriously about lowering the pricing on its players to the sub $200 level for consumers to really take notice. Actually, I believe BR players need to go below $150.

However, with all that being said, I just don’t see HDDVD coming out on top. There are simply too many factors weighing against it. And with Blockbuster coming out in support for BR this week, short of Universal or Microsoft jumping ship, HDDVD could not have received more devastating news. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to revisit these comments a year from now.

MC: “I'd be a bit irked if the more expensive format won out based on marketing prowess rather than technical value to customer.”

Hmmm … not sure how to answer this.
I’m a staunch supporter of consumers driving market conditions – not Sony, Toshiba, Microsoft, etc. Personally, I don’t have an issue with effective marketing. It’s a normal part of doing business, especially if one hopes to stay competitive with its peers. It’s incumbent upon consumers to sift through the FUD and make informed and carefully considered purchases. However, I too get extremely irked when corporations or special interest groups such as the MPAA or the RIAA attempt to circumvent market demand and/or consumer rights (i.e. DRM, draconian copyright protection measures, root kits, etc.) for their own selfish interests. Occasionally, while skimming through a forum, I’ll come across a post from some person angry of how the corporations (often Sony) are shoving products down their throat. I never understood that sentiment. My reaction is – don’t buy it then. I show my consumer dissatisfaction with my wallet and my feet. The bottom line: I choose a product that best meets my needs and is within my budget. Give me something that I don’t want and I am out the door.

MC Q: Another fact I'd be interested in - is there any consumer price differential between BR and HD DVD discs at this time?
A: I haven’t compared the market pricing lately, but I’ve heard arguments on both sides regarding disc pricing. At his point, I don’t feel comfortable enough to weigh in.

Paul
 

Sun/Paul -

enjoying the back-and-forth on this.

I forgot to emphasize the name advantage - HD DVD is simple and clear and makes total sense. Blu-ray? Most consumers will say WTF unless they've already been informed what it is about.

I heard a stat recently that 94% of BR players were PS3s...wow.

I think which platform sells more movies will be the really telling statistic.

But Blockbuster's decision I bet was backed with a lot of research.

-mike