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High Definition Video for Independent Filmmakers
A How To Guide for Digital Filmmakers
Welcome all! This is my blog to share my latest research,
thoughts, etc. on utilizing HD for independent filmmaking.

YES, I am available for consulting
Contact me at mike@hdforindies.com

All content copyright 2004-2007 Mike Curtis.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Wow. Boom. DONE. Blu-ray is going to win. 

My robogeek buddy Paul sent this one in:

FT.com / Companies / Media & internet - Paramount in HD DVD blow:

Paramount is poised to drop its support of HD DVD after Warner Brothers’ recent backing of Sony’s Blu-ray technology, in a move that will sound the death knell of HD DVD and bring the home entertainment format war to a definitive end.

Paramount and DreamWorks Animation, which makes the Shrek films, came out in support of HD DVD last summer, joining General Electric’s Universal Studios as the main backers of the Toshiba format.
...
The Warners move gives Blu-ray about 70 per cent of Hollywood’s output, although the format’s grip on film content will increase further when Paramount comes aboard.



OK...so don't go buying an HD-DVD player now. I officially declare Blu-ray the winner.

Here's to hoping Apple, as anticipated, reveals a Blu-ray burner/player in their forthcoming Macs in a couple of weeks.

-mike

UPDATE: Oh, how much changes when you check your email. Apple introduced new desktops this morning AHEAD of MWSF in an unexpected move - otherwise known as a soft release, otherwise known as it wasn't exciting enough for MWSF - just a speed bump, a bus upgrade (PCIe 2.0, 2x faster than before), and new GPUs. NO NEW OPTICAL DRIVES. Here's a performance rundown between the new top end box and Quad G5, Quad Mac Pro, and previous Octo Mac.

Also, an astute reader pointed out this Bloomberg.com article wherein Paramount denies that they are immediately switching to Blu-ray, but their phrasing is less than stunningly supportive:

"Paramount's current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format,'' Brenda Ciccone, a spokeswoman for Paramount, said in an e-mail today.


....not "we are firmly behind HD DVD", not "we have no plans to switch", not "that's bogus, we'll never switch over", nor "we have no plans to support Blu-ray as well," just that the CURRENT (as in today, may be different tomorrow) PLAN (intended action, not definitive actions) is to support the HD DVD format. They announced solo HD DVD support back in August of 2007. They are probably anxiously regretting that at the moment.

Even with Paramount on the fence, I think this was the tipping point. I owe someone a beer if I'm wrong that Blu-ray will be the market dominant force for high def discs, and in a year or two HD DVD will be the obscure also ran. This is a GOOD THING that SOMEBODY wins. While I've gone back and forth on the who I'd prefer, Blu-ray, with greater capacity, I think is the long term better deal for folks like us based on what I know.

As always, thanks to Paul and the other readers like him that feed me these bits I haven't had time to keep up on. If you spot a good article that you think ought to be up here, please do send it in!

-mike

ANOTHER UPDATE - another reader pointed out this article:

Interview: Samsung Says There's Life After Hollywood for HD DVD - Samsung guy says HD DVD will be for personal content presentation, as Microsoft is a big backer there. OK - but that's a minority market position. If you were lucky enough to snag one of those $100 HD DVD players at Walmart, you can already make (short) HD DVDs at home with Final Cut Studio.

THURSDAY UPDATE:

Universal: Current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format; Currently. - Engadget yeah - that. As the Engadget article said, we're more interested in what your plans are BEYOND tomorrow.

-mike

Labels: , ,

Comments:
Not so fast ! The Paramount rumour has already been debunked and Apple just announced the Mac Pro ahead of MacWorld SF - no BD option included...
 
Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike, Mike, MIKE!

Do NOT get sucked in by media hype. I would LOVE to see the format wars end. Now. Today.

Don't think it's gonna happen. The game is still afoot.
 
Hahah, that's what warner said a few weeks ago too("no plans to change") :)

Thank the gods this thing is finally coming to an end.
 
Hey have you see this:
http://gizmodo.com/341906/interview-samsung-says-theres-life-after-hollywood-for-hd-dvd

HD-DVD is still very viable for indies as a presentation format.

HD-DVD is still the only way I can burn an HD disc for clients. albeit only 20 minutes but I don't work on much long form stuff.
 
B-Scene - it has been tipping for a while. With prices for players getting closer and closer (but HD DVD still with better simple name recognition and lower cost players), and Blu-ray outselling 2:1...why would/should HD DVD maintain significant momentum?

The game is definitely still afoot, but I'm calling the outcome. I just don't know how many innings (quarters) this will go on. There's no time limit, but I think the winner will be the one that 90% of movies are available on, and consumers will have an obvious choice as to what to get.

HD DVD will probably:
-lower prices more, even if players cost them money,
-bundle a bunch of movies with every player
-one more big funding blowout on marketing pre-Christmas if they haven't seen the writing on the wall

But in 3 years....all Blu-ray for everything we care about, my friends.

-mike
 
You read it here first - Mike uses a MacPro as a laptop O.o

/cackle
 
Oh - also do not discount the interactive features that HD-DVD has that Blu-Ray lacks. Don't use Universal's "i" control as a benchmark - There is a LOT of potential under the covers there...
 
I don't buy the "personal use" argument - the price of BD burners will drop rapidly too, and there's plenty of cheap Blu-writing software on PC already.

BUT if Toshiba bite the bullet and get affordable "combo" players "out there" asap, they may be able to minimise their losses and stay in the game. If the player supports both formats, the consumer won't care and people can release on the most suitable format for them. ( Obviously this is exactly what happened with the DVD +R/-R "war". )

And I'll say it again, the manufacturing aspect is an important factor in all of this. The cost for a replicator to "re-tool" for BD is reportedly $1.2M vs. only $37K for HD DVD...

- Ian
 
As someone else mentioned, this news report has been debunked. Mike, you shouldn't run something as fact when it's just speculation. And especially, you shouldn't write a "jump to conclusion" comment based on speculation. It makes the all you commentaries suspect.
 
the whole story is told well here;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=friS4OOcdgQ
 
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